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On July 18, New Japan Pro Wrestling begins its annual G1 Climax tournament. Much like the Royal Rumble is often more anticipated than Wrestlemania, G1 Climax is NJPW’s Rumble to Wrestle Kingdom’s Wrestlemania. Even more like the Royal Rumble, the winner gets a shot at the world champion at the biggest show of the year. Why would a wrestling promotion determine its number one contender 4 or 5 months before its most prestigious championship match? Because that’s how special it is! One on one singles matches are a rarity in NJPW so when they happen, they tend to be pretty important. The G1 is nothing but singles matches for a month straight. Every notable outcome affects the product anywhere from September until springtime of the following year. Last year, for example, Karl Anderson earned himself an Intercontinental title match in the fall because he had pinned champion Shinsuke Nakamura during the G1 tournament. Champions rarely win the event so it’s always particularly noteworthy to see who defeats them during the course of the event.

The format is the same as the other NJPW tournaments I’ve covered on this blog, just bigger. There are two blocks of 10 players each and the daily fight cards alternate which block has official tournament matches. To have nine matches in 18 or so days might not sound so bad to anyone familiar with WWE’s rigorous schedule, but it’s important to keep in mind that NJPW is contested using “strong style,” which as its name implies, is pretty hard-hitting. The outcomes may be as predetermined as any other wrestling show, but the Japanese take an almost perverse pride in making it look as legit as possible.

When the dust settles, the two wrestlers who finished at top of their blocks meet in the G1 Climax Final. The Final is the NJPW equivalent of Summerslam, if Summerslam only booked one match that really mattered.

Once the champion is crowned, he carries around the G1 Climax briefcase in much the same way WWE has a Money in the Bank briefcase holder. The only differences are that the contract is only good for Wrestle Kingdom and the holder has to defend it, normally against the people he lost to during the course of the tournament. That takes care of the autumn booking to cover the large gap between August and January. Oh, by the way, if the G1 champion loses to his challengers, obviously he loses his title shot. But that has never happened.

Now here’s the rundown on this year’s players:

A BLOCK

Kazuchika Okada: The current IWGP Heavyweight champion. He is the biggest star NJPW has to offer and the booking revolves around him. I know I just said that the champion never wins the tournament to determine his challenger, but if anyone was going to do it, it jusy might be the Rainmaker.

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IWGP Heavyweight Champion Kazuchika Okada, “The Rainmaker.”

Hiroshi Tanahashi: The guy Okada ousted from the top to become the main man. He is the defending G1 Climax winner but he has sworn to never challenge for the IWGP championship again. Winning this tournament would be the ultimate loophole. However, Tanahashi’s best days are behind him and he is coming off a shoulder injury that cost him more time than originally planned for. I’d call him the favorite to win this block if he stays healthy, especially if he goes over Okada, (a match conveniently held on the final day.)

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Hiroshi Tanahashi, the “Ace of the Universe” & “Once in a Century Talent.” Modest, this one.

The Rest:

Tomohiro Ishii & Hirooki Goto: These guys are upper level management of Okada’s CHAOS stable. They’ll do well, but winning the block is probably not in the cards for either of them as they are sharing real estate with the boss.

Tama Tonga & Bad Luck Fale: Two of the founding members of Bullet Club, Tonga is making his tournament debut and is unlikely to do well. Fale is usually booked strong in tournament action because of his size, even if he never quite makes it over the hump.

SANADA: The newest member of Los Ingobernables de Japon, SANADA has been pushed as the second most important guy in the stable after Tetsuya Naito. There’s room here for him to make some noise.

Togi Makabe: The Unchained Gorilla is more of a midcard title guy but in NJPW sometimes that means you can make a surprise run near the top.

Marufuji Masamichi: New Japan usually brings in some guys on loan from other organizations to make the G1 Climax even more prestigious. Last year, Michael Elgin turned his Ring of Honor guest spot into a full time deal. This time Pro Wrestling NOAH sends Masamichi to the dance.

Hiroyoshi Tenzan: The ageless wonder was furious that he was left out of the tournament. Luckily for him, his longtime tag team partner felt his pain and surrendered his own spot to his friend. The only condition: Tenzan must win. Easy promise to make. Nearly impossible to keep.

B BLOCK

Tetsuya Naito: I was extremely disappointed when the leader of Los Ingobernables de Japon lost the IWGP title right back to Okada in a match where no stablemates were permitted at ringside. I thought it was the perfect time to show Naito doesn’t need to cheat to win and basically make him as a top guy. My hope is that they only put the title back on Okada to make it less likely who will win this tournament. Obviously they are going to want their new ace of the company to be in the main event of Wrestle Kingdom and having him go in as champ is an easier road to get there. This could also serve as a redemption arc for Naito as three years ago, he won G1 and the fans voted his world title match out the main event slot of WK8. Now he’s back near the top as a merch-moving antihero and NJPW might just want to use his newfound popularity to relaunch the title program they tried to go with in 2014. Winning G1 Climax more than once is a rare achievement and I’m not entirely sure Naito has reached that level, but I’m still picking him to win, as this seems the most obvious narrative to me.

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Tetsuya Naito

Kenny Omega: “The Cleaner” has had quite the year so far. He ousted AJ Styles as the leader of Bullet Club and rode a rocketship push to the top of the card. Naito vs Omega will take place on the last night of round robin, a telling sign that the battle of the faction leaders is likely to be an epic showdown to determine supremacy. The winner of the match is likely going over Tanahashi in the finals and main eventing the biggest show of the year. The stakes could not be higher but every bar Omega has seen, he has cleared so far.

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Bullet Club top dog: “The Cleaner” Kenny Omega

The Rest:

Toru Yano & YOSHI-HASHI: CHAOS is a pretty bloated stable and these two have even less of a chance than Ishii and Goto.

Katsuyori Shibata: Since committing to a full time contract, Shibata is finally being booked as the badass star that he is. If there’s any chance of a babyface coming out of the B Block, it would be “The Wrestler.” Although, come to think of it, he’s kind of a kayfabe asshole, too. Petition to rename B Block ‘Jerk Street’.

Yuji Nagata: Shibata’s rival for the last few months. He’s old. But he’s the best old we’ve got.

Michael Elgin: The new IWGP Intercontinental will certainly be pushed a little more this year than he was as a visitor last year. I’d love to see him do well and shock the world but I’m afraid the best he can do is 3rd or 4th place.

EVIL: Naito’s original lackey. Despite his giant scythe and laser pointer glove, he’s a surprisingly boring guy. The only interesting thing he’ll be a part of is whether or not he will lie down for his boss.

Tomoaki Honma: The lovable loser of New Japan is sure to fail hard once again as he does every year. Last year he beat Ishii for the first G1 points of his career. Can he build on that? The short answer is No.

Katsuhiro Nakajima: The second of the NOAH loaners. I can’t speak to his abilities but I can say he will definitely not win the block. That would be like WWE letting Drago stroll in from Lucha Underground to win the Royal Rumble.

 


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